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NHS facing ‘worst case scenario’ December amid ‘super flu’ surge

Flu hospitalisations have surged by more than half in just one week, plunging the NHS into a “worst case scenario” situation for December, new figures reveal today. 

An average of 2,660 patients per day were in a hospital bed with flu last week – the highest ever for this time of year and up 55% up on last week.

It means there are enough flu patients each day to fill more than three whole hospital trusts.

NHS chiefs have warned the total has already increased sharply since the week covered by the data, with no peak in sight.

The number of norovirus patients in hospital beds has also risen by 35% – to an average of 354 each day last week – as winter viruses start to engulf hospitals.

It comes as demand for A&Es and ambulance services is already soaring.

New monthly figures today show A&E attendances were a record for November at 2.35 million and more than 30,000 higher than November 2024, while there were 48,814 more ambulance incidents compared to last year (802,525 v 753,711).

The record-breaking demand comes with thousands of resident doctors set to go on strike from 17-22 December – sparking fears of major disruption for patients ahead of Christmas.

The NHS is urging anyone eligible to get their flu vaccination to help prevent them getting seriously ill. Today’s data shows more than 17.4 million have been vaccinated so far this year – over 170,000 more than this time last year.

Over 60,000 more frontline healthcare workers have had their flu vaccinations this year compared to a similar time last year with thousands more expected to get jabbed in the coming days.

The average ambulance response time for Category 2 emergencies including strokes and heart attacks was almost 10 minutes faster than in October 2024, at 32 minutes 46 seconds.

Figures also show the NHS waiting list in October rose slightly by 6,002 to 7.40 million – an estimated 6.24 million patients – but still significantly lower than a year ago, when it stood at 7.54 million.

Meanwhile, 2.62 million vital checks and tests were performed in October – the highest on record, over 100,000 up on the previous month and nearly 62,000 above October 2024.

As demand on the NHS surges, it is bracing for another five days of industrial action by resident doctors, which begins at 7am next Wednesday (17 December).

The public are advised to attend any planned appointments scheduled during the strikes unless they have been contacted to reschedule.

Primary and urgent and emergency care services will continue to be available for those who need them. The public should use 111 online as the first port of call for urgent but not life-threatening issues during industrial action so that they can be directed to the best place for their needs.

Patients who need emergency medical care should continue to use 999 or come forward to A&E as normal.

Professor Meghana Pandit, NHS National Medical Director, said: “With record demand for A&E and ambulances and an impending resident doctors strike, this unprecedented wave of super flu is leaving the NHS facing a worst-case scenario for this time of year – with staff being pushed to the limit to keep providing the best possible care for patients.

“The numbers of patients in hospital with flu is extremely high for this time of year.

“Even worse, it continues to rise and the peak is not in sight yet, so the NHS faces an extremely challenging few weeks ahead.

“NHS staff have pulled out all the stops to vaccinate more people than last year, and with just a week left to ensure maximum immunity from flu for Christmas Day, I would urge anyone eligible for the vaccine to please book an appointment or visit a walk-in site as soon as possible. Vaccination is the best protection against getting potentially very ill and it also helps protect those around you.

“We have prepared earlier for winter than ever before, and stress-tested services to ensure people have a range of ways to get the help they need and avoid needing to go to A&E.

“For non-life-threatening care, people should call NHS 111 or use 111 online, which can direct you to the most appropriate place, and use A&E and 999 for life threatening conditions and serious injuries.”

Health and Social Care Secretary, Wes Streeting said: “There is a tidal wave of flu tearing through our hospitals. We are working with the NHS to make sure it is able to cope with this as best as possible, including already getting over 17 million patients vaccinated, 170,000 more than this time last year, with over 60,000 more NHS staff also getting their jab.

“We have recruited 2,500 more GPs and modernised GP appointment booking, keeping patients cared for in the community and out of hospital.

“The offer I have made to the BMA would help solve the jobs problem resident doctors are facing, and bring an end to strike action this Christmas, which is the most dangerous time of year. I urge resident doctors not to inflict further damage on the NHS, vote for this deal, and call off the Christmas strikes.”