Name of product

Accident & Emergency (A&E) Admissions Forecasting Tool

Broad description of product

This Product produces a dashboard which:

• provides intelligence to support local operational decision-makers with resource and capacity management to proactively plan their A&E services for their population,
• provides a daily forecast of aggregate A&E admissions (+ admissions by age group) 1-3 weeks in advance by considering factors such as weather data on specific days and age groups. The forecasting model underlying the tool is primarily developed by using past aggregated admissions data.
• provides accuracy monitoring, so users can assess how close the recent forecasts have been to actual reported admissions.

Use case

Population Health Management

Controllers who use this product

NHS England is the Controller for this Product

The purpose for processing your personal data

The primary aim of the Accident and Emergency (A&E) Forecasting Tool and associated dashboard is to develop a product that provides intelligence to support local operational decision-makers with resource and capacity management. The tool provides a daily forecast of aggregate A&E admissions (+ admissions by age group) 1-3 weeks in advance.

The Trusts consider their patients as their population and this tool supports the Trust to proactively assess how they need to manage their A&E service to meet the needs of their population. The tool is also used by ICBs/ICSs to assess A&E activity, prospectively and retrospectively and therefore supports Population Health management use case of the Federated Data Platform.

The benefit of this product to users is that it makes aggregate forecasts of admissions via A&E available to use in planning. This helps facilitate a better understanding of likely activity to inform decisions around capacity management and resource utilisation for their population.

Historical values for average daily temperature from the MET office are also included in the tool. This is done to capture the potential impact of weather on hospital admissions. There is a large amount of evidence showing that weather conditions have a significant influence on the number and type of admissions through A&E departments, i.e. icy conditions are likely to result in falls and the requirement for more plaster technicians to be resourced to deal with broken bones.

In addition, the tool offers accuracy monitoring, so users can assess how close the recent forecasts have been to actual reported admissions. This is done by allowing the user to overlay the forecast generated by the tool on top of the actual admissions numbers for a chosen date in the past.

Type of data processed and categories of data

Personal Data – De-Identified Data

De-Identified Data will be processed for the purposes of creating aggregated which will populate the dashboard. Personal Data is de-identified by NHS England before it is transferred into FDP for use in the Product.

Data that is processed by this Product includes De-Identified Data about an individual’s:

• age

Legal grounds for processing personal data in FPD and sharing it (if applicable)

The processing of De-Identified Data by the Controller for the purposes identified above is permitted under the following legal grounds:

UK GDPR

• Legal Obligation – Article 6(1)(c)… ‘the processing is necessary for compliance with a legal obligation’. This applies where NHS England is directed under section 254 of the Health and Social Care Act 2012 to collect and analyse personal data for the purpose of producing the dashboards;
• Substantial Public Interest – Article 9(2)(g) ‘processing is necessary for reasons of substantial public interest’ together with the legal ground in Schedule 1, Part 2, Paragraph 6 of the Data Protection Act 2018 (“DPA 2018”) “statutory etc and government purposes”. This applies where NHS England processes personal data under Legal Obligation or Public Task above;

Confidential data

NHS England is required by law to process the De-Identified Data it collects and analyses in the Product to produce the dashboards. This is required under legal directions issued by the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care to NHS England under section 254 of the Health and Social Care 2012 Act (Legal Direction).

The data which is shared with users through the dashboards is Anonymous Aggregated Data which is not Confidential Data.

Who is processing your personal data on behalf of the controller

The Data Platform Contractor, Palantir Technologies UK, LTD is a Processor for this Product.

No Personal Data is being processed by the PET Contractor IQVIA LTD, who is not a Processor for this Product.

Who your data is shared with

Anonymous Aggregated Data is shared with a range of dashboard users. The data shared does not therefore identify anyone.

Users of the dashboards may include:

• Senior operational planners at trust/ICS/ICB level
• System Control Centre leads
• Bed/site managers.
• Consultants and general managers across emergency care.
• NHS England national and regional operational and UEC teams

Your rights under UKGDP

The following rights under UK GDPR apply to the processing of your Personal Data in the dashboards for the purposes above:

• Right to be informed

Further information about these rights is in the FDP Privacy Notice.

If you wish to exercise your rights you should contact the NHS England Data Protection Officer at england.dpo@nhs.net.

Other opt outs

No Opt Outs apply to this Product .

• Type 1 Opt Outs do not apply because the datasets used to create the dashboards do not contain confidential patient information that has been collected by NHS England from GP Practices.
• National Data Opt Outs do not apply because:
  • the collection and analysis of data by NHS England to create the dashboards has been carried out under a legal obligation (the Legal Direction) and therefore the National Data Opt Out does not apply.
  • the data which is shared with other organisations through the dashboards is not confidential patient information as it is Anonymous Aggregated Data and therefore the National Data Opt Out does not apply.

Last updated: 12 April 2024