The Demand and Capacity team has a range of models you can use to help you understand the needs of your service. This page lists the tools you can use for operational modelling.

How do these models work?

Our models are designed to help you explore how your service operates and support your improvement efforts in a structured way.

This means you will be customising the models to reflect how your service operates. As part of the process, it may highlight processes or data quality issues that need resolving – this is an expected part of the process. The key thing is to improve, and re-model on an ongoing basis so you have a continually updated view of how your service is working.

The models look at two key metrics:

• The balance of required capacity versus available capacity
• The number of patients waiting to be seen vs. the calculated sustainable waiting list size.

Required capacity is the clinical capacity you need to provide to meet patient demand, accounting for factors like variability of demand, those that Did Not Attend (DNAs), and rebooking.

Available capacity is the capacity your service can provide.

Selecting a suitable model will depend on what kind of process you are trying to analyse.

• For new appointments, or services that can be modelled as one stop appointments, have a look at our core model.
• If you want to model a series of follow ups, or regimens of treatment (e.g. diabetic services, or a course of rehabilitation), the caseload model might help.
• We also have models that look at urgent / emergency care, where the response times may be in hours rather than days – this includes both acute (emergency department) and community (urgent response) services.

Download the models

Published models can be downloaded below, further models can be found via our FutureNHS website.

NHS England (published) models:

• Demand and capacity core model
• Demand and capacity aggregation module
• Demand and capacity emergency department model

FutureNHS models:

• Core model (COVID-19 update)
• Caseload model
• Discharge hub staffing model
• Urgent response model

IMAS models

The models below were developed by the Elective Care Improvement Support team (Elective Care IST) before the Demand and Capacity team was set up in 2016. These models are compatible with the above aggregation module.

The IMAS models can be accessed below:

• Two week wait model
• Diagnostic model
• Endoscopy model
• Outpatient model
• Inpatient model
• Advanced flow model

Looking for other types of models?

If you are looking for something to help you model more complex interactions between organisations, have a look at our systems modelling resources on our FutureNHS network: Demand and capacity network – FutureNHS collaboration platform

Want to know more about modelling?

Have a look at our further resources where you can find case studies, webinars, and e-learning materials, or come join our community of practice.